Professor Anna Dreber, Stockholm School on Economics, will deliver the 2021 Anastasi Lecture, titled “(Predicting) Replication Outcomes.”
Which results can we “trust?” What share of results are replicated in different kinds of literature in the experimental social sciences? I will discuss several recent, large replication projects, mainly in psychology and economics, in which my coauthors and I have redone experiments published in high-impact journals with new and larger samples to see whether the main result replicates. I will also discuss our studies on “wisdom-of-crowds” mechanisms, such as prediction markets and forecasting surveys in which researchers attempt to predict these replication outcomes, as well as new outcomes. While the replications are mainly on experiments, there are reasons to believe that the problems are worse in nonexperimental work. I will also discuss ways to increase the reliability of scientific results.
This event is open to alumni, faculty/staff, parents, students, and the public.